On the Edge of the World
Report from the Global Tipping Points Conference
On the Edge of the World
Report from the Global Tipping Points Conference
It has become something of a cliché to state that we are at a pivotal moment right now in the history of the human species – or even the history of life on Earth. The remarkable event I attended this week – the second Global Tipping Points Conference, hosted by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute – spelled out in comprehensive detail, through the lens of scores of academic disciplines and practical projects, the many ways in which we are now at critical tipping points, not only in terms of the geophysical, meteorological and ecological changes now under way within the Earth system, but in the social, economic and cultural processes that are at the same time the ongoing causes and the potential solutions for what is very inadequately referred to as ‘The Climate Crisis’.
Although the existence of global tipping points in the climate system has been referred to for some time in the debate around climate change, it is only fairly recently that we have had precise scientific models of them. Consequently, their crucial significance has been greatly under-emphasised in successive IPCC assessments, at least until the sixth assessment in 2023[1]. Such tipping points are critical thresholds at which key elements of the Earth system, such as the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the Amazon rainforest, suddenly become unstable and ‘flip’ into a profoundly different state from what has been normal over long time scales (usually longer than human history.)
These changes can occur over very short time periods, and can have massive ‘knock-on’ effects, amplifying changes elsewhere in the system and potentially triggering other tipping points in a cascade of abrupt systemic shifts. Understanding the full implications of these dynamics dramatically changes the way we need to think about both climate change itself and our responses to it. Until recently, the discourse around tipping points in the climate debate mainly tended to take the form of distress calls – unless governments wake up and act, we risk triggering ‘runaway climate change’, and there will be no road back from comprehensive climate disaster. In terms of what we know about climate psychology, this wasn’t a very helpful framing, especially since the timescales, magnitude and probability of occurrence of tipping points were not precisely known.
Now, thanks in no small part to the dedicated efforts of the research team at Exeter’s GSI, there has been huge progress in the understanding of the complex dynamics of tipping points – not only in the climate system per se, but in complex systems in general, potentially enabling scholars to study interactions between changes in the physical climate system, the biosphere, and the human social, economic and cultural systems that influence and are influenced by the physical and biological components. It is becoming increasingly clear – and in fact is increasingly the case – that it is no longer possible to gain an accurate understanding of any one of these interlinked systems without situating it within an inclusive picture of the whole system.
The first Tipping Points conference and the report that followed explored the dynamics of the major negative tipping points of the physical / biological climate system in detail. It offered scientists and policymakers, for the first time, a comprehensive analysis of the major risks of climate instability that takes these hugely important phenomena properly into account. The second report will be published this Autumn ahead of the COP30 international climate summit (with which it is closely linked – see below.) Its aim is to incorporate the best current understanding of both positive and negative, and both physical/biological and social/cultural/economic tipping points, enabling much clearer and more direct links to be made between climate risks and solutions, and allowing policymakers, activists and the public to find the most appropriate leverage points to optimise the positive impacts of climate action.
This week’s conference presented work in progress on the current phase of the collaborative effort to gain a firm grip on the nature of the climate and ecological crisis, and the collective action needed to tame it. More than 30 keynote presentations by leading climate researchers, activists, business and civil society leaders explored a diverse array of aspects of tipping point dynamics, with some 50 workshops drilling down into the detail behind these headline themes. The last speaker in the final plenary session of the conference was Tulio Andrade, head of Strategy and Alignment for the upcoming COP30 Climate Summit in Belem, Brazil. His presentation made clear that the cutting edge analysis of the present state of the climate situation developed by the Tipping Points international research community is very directly linked into the framing of the conference, which is being designed to harness as powerfully as possible the collective power of the global civil society climate movement, in what is designated as a Global Mutirão, a world-wide mobilisation of all concerned citizens and groups to address the climate crisis with a new level of urgency and determination.
To be present throughout the four days of intense deliberations was an exhilarating experience - I left not only feeling that I had a firmer grip on the nature and dimensions of the climate problem, but empowered and encouraged by the sense that there is a massively competent and well-organised global community of thinkers and activists that, while fully aware of its daunting magnitude and complexity, are addressing the numerous challenges facing us with expertise, confidence and courage, and in the joined-up, multi-dimensional way that is needed.
So this post is also a continuation of the theme of Authentic Hope that keeps returning each time I sit down to write – I’ve been wrestling with this for so long, fluctuating between sometimes feeling I’m a Pollyanna, repeatedly applying a fresh helping of sugar coating each time the human predicament worsens yet again, at other times struggling to find a way to reconcile myself to accepting what looks like the impending complete destruction of civilisation.
At the Tipping Points Conference I experienced - I think for the first time – a third alternative, one that felt more stable, balanced and mature. We are indeed heading into a time of collapse and disintegration of many human and ecological systems, in which there will be very great suffering, conflict and disintegration. But there is also a powerful countervailing dynamic – our understanding of the behaviour of both human and natural systems is rapidly deepening, and practical interventions that can make a huge difference to the outcomes are increasingly being deployed at scale.
Yes, climate change is here, it is escalating, and it was an avoidable disaster that we, as a society, have brought upon ourselves. But it is beginning to seem to me that, far from inducing a general paralysis of the will, the human spirit, intellect and heart are rising to the challenge of building a more sane, humane and nature-friendly human presence as we go through that harrowing transition. The binary framing that has cast the problem in the form ‘Will we or will we not avert climate catastrophe?’ is being replaced by a mindset that simply looks at the situation in all its urgency and complexity and asks ‘What can we do now that will move the system in the right direction as far and fast as possible?’
Whenever Arne Naess, one of the founding fathers of Deep Ecology, was asked if he was an optimist or a pessimist, he would reply ‘I am an optimist for the twenty-second century.’ While I agree with this wise assessment, after the second TP Conference I am left feeling that if we are the generation that will lay the foundations for that better human future, being a part of that work could make living in the twenty-first century deeply worthwhile.
[1] ‘Consequently’ because the IPCC’s default mode of presentation of climate risks suffers from a particular kind of academic conservatism – aspects of the climate system that are not well understood tend to be omitted, owing to the absence of a scientific consensus on their nature and significance. However, in the nature of the case, some of the most alarming potential climate risks fall within this ‘less well understood’ category. Therefore, there has been a tendency for the IPCC’s periodic reports to understate the overall risks of climate change, particularly with regard to the likelihood of dramatic and extreme events that could arise from complex interacting feedbacks within the system.